Thematic investing is good for bigger firms. It allows each partner to pick a couple themes and go after them. Thesis driven investing is good for smaller firms. It requires a tight team that works to keep themselves on the same page executing after a singular vision.

-Fred Wilson (USV)

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Outlaw is a thesis-driven fund.

To be better at identifying theses, we want to be directionally correct with the themes we target.

I have spent years reading, thinking, and sharing thoughts on where the venture world is trending, and these are the six themes that have shaped our thesis the most.

</aside>

Theme 1: Labor decoupling and K-shaped economies

"The economy split in two. One half soars on asset appreciation. The other sinks on wage stagnation. Every business must pick a side - premium or value. The middle is death.”

The consumer split: Asset owners vs. the rest

Depending on who you talk to, the economy is either the best or worst it has ever been.

The difference in opinion (in our humble opinion) primarily comes down to whether or not that person is an asset owner. If they are, things are great. If they are not, things are grim.

• The top 10% of Americans now account for 49% of all consumer spending.
• The wealthiest 10% hold over two-thirds of the nation's total wealth, while the bottom 50% collectively hold just a fraction.
• Middle class shrunk from 61% in 1971 to 51% in 2023.

This creates two distinct consumer markets: one spending freely, and one spending frugally (if at all). The same distinction can be made on the business side.

The labor split: Less is more

As the token economy unfolds and it becomes less expensive to replace white collar work, a larger percentage of desktop jobs are going extinct.

• Companies are operating fine with dramatically fewer people. Elon firing 80% of Twitter staff and platform continuing to function was the mask-off moment, and every company realized they were carrying corporate bloat.
• 1.17 million layoffs were announced in first 11 months of 2025, up 54% from 2024. This is only the sixth time since 1993 that layoffs topped 1.1 million (joining 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2020).
• 500,000 white-collar software workers expected to be laid off over next 2-3 years (70% with 4-12 years experience). White-collar unemployment rose from 3.1% to 4.0%, while blue-collar stayed stable at 3.5-3.7%. The result: fewer workers, same or better output, higher margins.
• "Forever layoffs" - rolling cuts, smaller teams, leaner operations are the new permanent state. Companies discovered they can accomplish more with less, and the roles being let go are not coming back.

The wage split: Capital > labor

You could make the case that it has never been a worse time to be a salaried worker.

• Automation has replaced the need for many entry-level and back office roles. It is no longer feasible to hire most junior roles - software has already replaced them. It is now moving up chain of command, and no role is safe anymore.
• Offshoring and visa programs have reduced the supply of “jobs worth pursuing”. There is always somebody cheaper who wants your role. The farther away your role is from creating revenue, the easier you are to replace.
• Inflation and suppressed wages has already (and will continue to) lowered quality of living. The life that was afforded to the previous generation on a single W2 salary now requires two W2 salaries. Pretty soon, even that will not be enough.

If your wealth does not come from assets, you are falling behind by the day.

<aside>

The K-shaped economy is more structural than temporary.

• Asset owners have pulled away from wage earners.
• Companies operating with dramatically fewer people achieve higher margins.
• Businesses must pick premium (asset owners) or value (everyone else) - the middle is death. </aside>

Theme 2: The Golden Age for builders

There has never been a better time to be a founder.

• The infrastructure tax of starting a business has disappeared. Over the past two decades, the fixed costs of running a basic internet company has reduced from $150k / month to ~$1k / month. In today’s world, you can build, ship, and scale to thousands of users before needing outside capital. At the same time, audiences can be built for free to validate demand before building. All of the traditional barriers - capital, infrastructure, distribution - are gone.
• Superhuman tools for us mortals. Cursor autocompletes entire features. Lovable ships production apps from prompts. Replit goes from idea to deployment in one conversation. V0 generates React components on demand. Claude writes documentation. Midjourney creates marketing assets. The entire creative stack is now accessible to anyone.
• Status comes with building. ~20 years ago, there was no status to being a founder; it was a “profession” for the misfits and unemployable. Fast forward to today, and everybody wants to be a founder. The private markets have ballooned, Harvard teaches entrepreneurship classes, the Hollywood-ification of startups has attracted a new audience, and younger generations see entrepreneurship as the only way out of the W2 rat race and a declining lifestyle. As more smart people are steered towards startups (many of whom would never consider them in a previous generation), the influx of talent creates is a new generation of builders.

https://x.com/a16z/status/2009633915292856374

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We are living through the golden age for builders.

• The cost to start is $0.
• The tools are superhuman.
• The capital is there.
• The status is there.
• AI makes execution programmable.

What used to require $2M, 2 years, and 20 people now requires $0, 2 weeks, and you + the right tooling.

</aside>

Opportunity zone:

• Boring businesses + AI = massive opportunity (HVAC, plumbing, local services)
• Vertical micro-SaaS for extremely specific niches (now economical to build)
• AI-first rebuilds of existing SaaS (faster, cheaper, better UX)
• Distribution software (tools that build audiences, not just products)
• Agent-native products (built for AI consumption from day one)
• Community-first products (validate, pre-sell, then build)

Theme 3: Everything is computer

"Software ate the world. Now the world is being rebuilt in software's image - and everything that can be computerized, will be."